The British Government Criticises The Lancet
Source: Justice Not Vengeance
By Milan Rai
15 December 2004
CRITICISING THE LANCET
As soon as the Lancet, the world’s leading medical journal, published an estimate that 98,000 Iraqis have died because of the invasion and occupation of Iraq, the British Government attempted to undermine this work.
The Lancet estimate (usually approximated to 100,000 deaths) includes Iraqi civilians and insurgents, and includes all causes of death, whether violent or nonviolent, and whether they were caused by foreigners (such as US pilots) or by Iraqis themselves.
For reasons explored in an earlier briefing (JNV 74), the 100,000 figure is likely to be an under-estimate of the death toll associated with the conflict. The British Government, however, has sought to portray the Lancet study as a massive over-estimate of the likely death toll in Iraq.
THREE DIFFERENT ESTIMATES MEASURING THREE DIFFERENT THINGS
Iraq Body Count (IBC) estimates ‘media-reported civilian deaths in Iraq resulting directly from military action by the USA and its allies’, including ‘civilian deaths resulting from the breakdown in law and order, and deaths due to inadequate health care or sanitation’: between 14,284 and 16,419 (over a period of 18 months). This is based on both direct reports by journalists, and records from morgues and hospitals.
The Iraqi Ministry of Health (MOH) claims to have recorded civilian and insurgent deaths due either to terrorist incidents or to US-led military action, based on bodies delivered to hospitals and deaths in hospital, between 5 Apr. and 5 Oct. 2004: 3,853 (over 6 months).
Finally, theLancet estimates extra deaths of all Iraqis from all causes since the invasion, based on a survey of 988 households containing 7868 residents throughout Iraq: 98,000 (over 17.8 months).
It is hardly surprising that the estimates differ. They each measure something different (and the MOH estimate covers only part of the post-invasion period).
ESTIMATING VIOLENT POST-INVASION DEATHS
The IBC and MOH figures are not necessarily inconsistent: extrapolating the MOH estimate backwards (in a linear, unscientific way) to the entire post-invasion period generates 12,000 violent deaths, near the IBC figure.
On the other hand, the Lancet study does not estimate the number of Iraqis (civilians, soldiers and insurgents) who have died a violent death in the post-invasion period. It must be larger than either the IBC or the MOH estimates.
Comparing IBC with the Lancet, it is not surprising that the IBC record of violent deaths of civilians and insurgents reported in the international press is much smaller than a Lancet-based estimate of the total number of violent deaths (reported and unreported), including those due to crime.
THE MINISTRY OF HEALTH DISCREPANCY
Comparing the MOH record and the Lancet estimate, even after adjusting for the fact that the latter has a time period three times as long, and includes the invasion itself, there would seem to be a sizeable gap, one that the Blair Government finds damning: ‘Hospitals in Iraq have no obvious reason to under-report the number of dead and injured. The Lancet article does not explain this discrepancy.’
In fact, the discrepancy was explained by Iraqi officials: ‘Iraqi health and hospital officials agreed that the statistics captured only part of the death toll… The numbers also exclude those whose bodies were too mutilated to be recovered at car bombing or other attacks, the ministry said. Ministry officials said they didn’t know how big the undercount was. “We have nothing to do with politics,” [Dr Shihab Ahmed] Jassim [member of the Ministry of Health Operations Section] said.’ (