...I’m even more struck that here a year after our study came out, the first time the President has been asked about this was not by a reporter, but by someone from the public when he took a question.
-Les Roberts

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On the 1,000th day of the U.S. war on Iraq, we look at a subject that usually receives little attention -- the Iraqi civilian death toll since the war began. We speak with Dr. Les Roberts, the lead researcher of a study released last year on the number of deaths in Iraq, which put the toll at more than 100,000. [includes rush transcript] President Bush was asked about the Iraqi civilian death toll on Monday following his speech at the Philadelphia World Affairs Council.

Q: Since the inception of the Iraqi war, I'd like to know the approximate total of Iraqis who have been killed. And by Iraqis I include civilians, military, police, insurgents, translators.

THE PRESIDENT: How many Iraqi citizens have died in this war? I would say 30,000, more or less, have died as a result of the initial incursion and the ongoing violence against Iraqis. We've lost about 2,140 of our own troops in Iraq.

Report, IRIN

14 December 2005

BAGHDAD -- A Washington-based humanitarian organisation urged the US government this week to accurately count and identify all civilian casualties of the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq, following a recent announcement by US President George Bush that 30,000 Iraqi civilians had been killed to date.

"CIVIC believes the US military needs to keep statistics on civilian casualties, particularly those caused by US actions in Iraq," read a statement from the Campaign for Innocent Victims of Conflict (CIVIC).

Tara Sutton, Acting Field Director of CIVIC, said she believed that records were only being kept "to a certain extent" in the form of "after-incident reports" filed by the US military after any armed engagement.

Source: Iraqi Civilian War Casualties

Covering the period of March 21 - July 31, 2003

Data collection by CIVIC Worldwide
Raed Jarrar, Director of Iraq Survey

A note from the director of the survey

I was the country director of the first (and maybe only) door-to-door civilian casualties survey. Marla Ruzika was my American partner, the fund raiser, and the general director of CIVIC. Unfortunately, she didn't have the chance to publish the final results until now.

I decided to publish my copy of the final results of the Iraqi civilian casualties in Baghdad and the south of Iraq on the 9th of this month in respect to the big effort of the 150 volunteers who worked with me and spent weeks of hard work under the hot sun of the summer, in respect to Majid my brother who spent weeks arranging the data entry process, and in respect to the innocent souls of those who died because of irresponsible political decisions.

Two thousand killed, Four thousand injured.

Each one of these thousands has a life, memories, hopes. Each one had his moments of sadness, moments of joy and moments of love.

In respect to their sacred memory, I would appreciate it if you could spend some minutes reading the database file: read their names, and their personal details, and think about them as human beings, friends, and relatives -- not mere figures and numbers.

I led the volunteers in their work in Baghdad, and the nine cities of the south: Karbala, Hilla, Najaf, Diwanyya, Simawa, Nasryya, Basra, Kut and Amara through my weekly visits. I went to the north for a couple of times, and arranged some smaller-scale surveys.

The survey teams were from the local areas: I made sure to create groups that reflected the ethnical, religious and gender ratios of the targeted regions. And I designed the survey form, all of which relied on my scientific background I gained from my M.Sc. researches, and relied on the very cooperative spirits of the volunteers and of the Iraqi families. We preferred not to include the military casualties to give our survey a civilian perspective.

Civilian: anyone killed outside the battlefield, even if his original job was military (e.g. a soldier killed in his house is a civilian). Military: anyone killed while fighting in a battle, even if his original job was a civic one (e.g. an engineer killed while fighting as a Fidaee). We had primitive and simple tools of research, yet I believe our survey is credible and accountable.

I would like to thank my friend Michael Richardson, a writer and graphic designer from Northampton, MA, USA, for his huge effort in designing and publishing the casualties website.

-Raed Jarrar
Baghdad

For complete Tables and Graphs of this study see Iraqi Civilian War Casualties

Source: The Lancet 2004; 364:1857-1864 (requires free registration)

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(04)17441-2
Les Roberts, Riyadh Lafta, Richard Garfield, Jamal Khudhairi and Gilbert Burnham

Summary

Background

In March, 2003, military forces, mainly from the USA and the UK, invaded Iraq. We did a survey to compare mortality during the period of 14·6 months before the invasion with the 17·8 months after it.

Methods

A cluster sample survey was undertaken throughout Iraq during September, 2004. 33 clusters of 30 households each were interviewed about household composition, births, and deaths since January, 2002. In those households reporting deaths, the date, cause, and circumstances of violent deaths were recorded. We assessed the relative risk of death associated with the 2003 invasion and occupation by comparing mortality in the 17·8 months after the invasion with the 14·6-month period preceding it.

Findings

The risk of death was estimated to be 2·5-fold (95% CI 1·6–4·2) higher after the invasion when compared with the preinvasion period. Two-thirds of all violent deaths were reported in one cluster in the city of Falluja. If we exclude the Falluja data, the risk of death is 1·5-fold (1·1–2·3) higher after the invasion. We estimate that 98000 more deaths than expected (8000–194000) happened after the invasion outside of Falluja and far more if the outlier Falluja cluster is included. The major causes of death before the invasion were myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accidents, and other chronic disorders whereas after the invasion violence was the primary cause of death. Violent deaths were widespread, reported in 15 of 33 clusters, and were mainly attributed to coalition forces. Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and children. The risk of death from violence in the period after the invasion was 58 times higher (95% CI 8·1–419) than in the period before the war.

Interpretation

Making conservative assumptions, we think that about 100000 excess deaths, or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths. We have shown that collection of public-health information is possible even during periods of extreme violence. Our results need further verification and should lead to changes to reduce non-combatant deaths from air strikes.

Published online October 29,2004

See Full Text Version of the Study on The Lancet Website (requires free registration)

Source: Iraq Body Count

• download the dossier (pdf format)

New analysis of civilian casualties in Iraq: Report unveils comprehensive details

"A Dossier on Civilian Casualties in Iraq, 2003-2005" is the first detailed account of all non-combatants reported killed or wounded during the first two years of the continuing conflict. The report, published by Iraq Body Count in association with Oxford Research Group, is based on comprehensive analysis of over 10,000 media reports published between March 2003 and March 2005.

Findings include:

Who was killed?

• 24,865 civilians were reported killed in the first two years.
• Women and children accounted for almost 20% of all civilian deaths.
• Baghdad alone recorded almost half of all deaths.

When did they die?

• 30% of civilian deaths occurred during the invasion phase before 1 May 2003.
• Post-invasion, the number of civilians killed was almost twice as high in year two (11,351) as in year one (6,215).

Who did the killing?

• US-led forces killed 37% of civilian victims.
• Anti-occupation forces/insurgents killed 9% of civilian victims.
• Post-invasion criminal violence accounted for 36% of all deaths.
• Killings by anti-occupation forces, crime and unknown agents have shown a steady rise over the entire period.

What was the most lethal weaponry?

• Over half (53%) of all civilian deaths involved explosive devices.
• Air strikes caused most (64%) of the explosives deaths.
• Children were disproportionately affected by all explosive devices but most severely by air strikes and unexploded ordnance (including cluster bomblets).

How many were injured?

• At least 42,500 civilians were reported wounded.
• The invasion phase caused 41% of all reported injuries.
• Explosive weaponry caused a higher ratio of injuries to deaths than small arms.
• The highest wounded-to-death ratio incidents occurred during the invasion phase.

Who provided the information?

• Mortuary officials and medics were the most frequently cited witnesses.
• Three press agencies provided over one third of the reports used.
• Iraqi journalists are increasingly central to the reporting work.

Speaking today at the launch of the report in London, Professor John Sloboda, FBA, one of the report's authors said: "The ever-mounting Iraqi death toll is the forgotten cost of the decision to go to war in Iraq. On average, 34 ordinary Iraqis have met violent deaths every day since the invasion of March 2003. Our data show that no sector of Iraqi society has escaped. We sincerely hope that this research will help to inform decision-makers around the world about the real needs of the Iraqi people as they struggle to rebuild their country. It remains a matter of the gravest concern that, nearly two and half years on, neither the US nor the UK governments have begun to systematically measure the impact of their actions in terms of human lives destroyed."

• Click to download the Dossier (pdf)

The Iraq Living Conditions Survey 2004 reports and analyses the living conditions in Iraq as they were approximately one year after the change of regime in the country, as a result of the 2003 war. This representative survey of 21,668 households is the first in recent years to cover all governorates in Iraq. The larger part of the survey took place in April and May 2004, while fieldwork in the governorates of Erbil and Dahouk was carried out in August 2004.

The results of the survey appear in three volumes: a Tabulation Report, which presents the main results of the survey in tabular form; an Analytical Report, and a Socio-Economic Atlas which depicts the situation in Iraq using maps and diagrams.

Read the Full Overview

Download Survey Reports

English Reports:

• Volume I: Tabulation Report
• Volume II: Analytical Report
• Volume III: Socio-economic Atlas

Arabic Reports:

• Volume I: Tabulation Report
• Volume II: Analytical Report
• Volume III: Socio-economic Atlas

The following are links to the 4 main published mortality studies:

• COSIT/UNDP: Iraq Living Conditions Survey 2004
• Iraq Body Count: A Dossier of Civilian Casualties in Iraq 2003–2005
• Iraqi Civilian War Casualties - Covering the period of March 21 - July 31, 2003 data collection by CIVIC Worldwide
• The Lancet Study: Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey